| Stock
Basics: What Causes Prices To Change?
Stock prices change everyday by market forces.
By this we mean that share prices change because
of supply and demand. If more people want to
buy a stock (demand) than sell it (supply),
then the price moves up. Conversely, if more
people wanted to sell a stock than buy it, there
would be greater supply than demand, and the
price would fall.
Understanding supply and demand is easy. What
is difficult to comprehend is what makes people
like a particular stock and dislike another
stock. This comes down to figuring out what
news is positive for a company and what news
is negative. There are many answers to this
problem and just about any investor you ask
has their own ideas and strategies.
That being said, the principal theory is that
the price movement of a stock indicates what
investors feel a company is worth. Don't equate
a company's value with the stock price. The
value of a company is its market capitalization,
which is the stock price multiplied by the number
of shares outstanding. For example, a company
that trades at 100 per share and has 1,000,000
shares outstanding has a lesser value than a
company that trades at 50 but has 5,000,000
shares outstanding (100 x 1,000,000 =100,000,000
while 50 x 5,000,000 = 250,000,000). To further
complicate things, the price of a stock doesn't
only reflect a company's current value--it also
reflects the growth that investors expect in
the future.
The most important factor that affects the value
of a company is its earnings. Earnings are the
profit a company makes, and in the long run
no company can survive without them. It makes
sense when you think about it. If a company
never makes money, they aren't going to stay
in business. Public companies are required to
report their earnings four times a year (once
each quarter). Wall Street watches with rabid
attention at these times, which are referred
to as earnings seasons. The reason behind this
is that analysts base their future value of
a company on their earnings projection. If a
company's results surprise (are better than
expected), the price jumps up. If a company's
results disappoint (are worse than expected),
then the price will fall.
Of course, it's not just earnings that can change
the sentiment towards a stock (which, in turn,
changes its price). It would be a rather simple
world if this were the case! During the dot-com
bubble, for example, dozens of Internet companies
rose to have market capitalizations in the billions
of dollars without ever making even the smallest
profit. As we all know, these valuations did
not hold, and most all Internet companies saw
their values shrink to a fraction of their highs.
Still, the fact that prices did move that much
demonstrates that there are factors other than
current earnings that influence stocks. Investors
have developed literally hundreds of these variables,
ratios and indicators. Some you may have already
heard of, such as the P/E ratio, while others
are extremely complicated and obscure with names
like Chaikin Oscillator or Moving Average Convergence
Divergence (MACD).
So, why do stock prices change? The best answer
is that nobody really knows for sure. Some believe
that it isn't possible to predict how stocks
will change in price while others think that
by drawing charts and looking at past price
movements, you can determine when to buy and
sell. The only thing we do know as a certainty
is that stocks are volatile and can change in
price extremely rapidly.
The important things to grasp about this subject
are the following:
1.
At the most fundamental level, supply and demand in the market determine
stock price.
2.
Price times the number of shares outstanding (market
capitalization) is the value of a company. Comparing just the share
price of two companies is meaningless.
3.
Theoretically earnings are what affect investors' valuation of
a company, but there are other indicators that investors use to predict
stock price. Remember, it is investors' sentiments, attitudes, and
expectations that ultimately affect stock prices.
4.
There are many theories that try to explain the way stock
prices move the way they do. Unfortunately, there is no one theory that
can explain everything. |
|